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Mobility & Transport - Road Safety

Expectations of the future number of crashes and fatalities

Using population figures, data relating to the number of licensed drivers, data on the annual mileages they drive, and crash data, Maycock has forecast the number of killed and serious injuries among UK older driver groups for the period 1998-2022. The results of the forecasts show that during this period the number of fatal and serious casualties among older male drivers will decline, whereas the number of fatal and serious casualties among older female drivers will increase. The yearly rates of decline and increase differ per age group: the older the age group, the smaller the decline for male drivers and the larger the increase for female drivers. The increase of fatalities and serious injuries among older female drivers is caused by the expected future growth in the number of drivers in this group (see driving licences). These forecasts show that the number of casualties among older drivers will decrease less than the number of casualties among younger drivers, leading to a larger share of casualties among older drivers. The same trend was predicted for the Netherlands by Davidse.

  Male drivers Female drivers
60-64 -3.5% -2.0%
65-69 -4.0% -1.8%
70-74 -3.1% -0.8%
75-79 -2.9% 0.0%
80-84 -2.1% 0.9%
85-89 -1.6% 2.2%
90+ -0.8% 4.2%

Predicted yearly rates of increase or decrease of the number of fatal and serious casualties in the period 1998-2022 in the UK (Source: Maycock, 2001)